20211117 predictions and some analysis

20211117/20111117_DougJudy.csv

+,forecast_date,target,horizon,q0.025,q0.25,q0.5,q0.75,q0.975
+0,2021-11-17,wind,36 hour,13.13160921357612,18.763496214768946,21.71855354309082,24.673610871412695,30.30549787260552
+1,2021-11-17,wind,48 hour,14.515349106549191,20.493139078570827,23.62969207763672,26.76624507670261,32.74403504872424
+2,2021-11-17,wind,60 hour,15.827053478611989,22.0731932583738,25.350549697875977,28.627906137378154,34.874045917139966
+3,2021-11-17,wind,72 hour,13.206879024690979,18.89994942898252,21.887109756469727,24.874270083956933,30.567340488248472
+4,2021-11-17,wind,84 hour,12.864474925842632,18.55072551624786,21.5343074798584,24.51788944346894,30.20414003387416
+5,2021-11-17,temperature,36 hour,7.262449337018831,8.617470208906655,9.328451156616211,10.039432104325767,11.394452976213591
+6,2021-11-17,temperature,48 hour,7.845147560669256,9.236166611135985,9.966035842895508,10.69590507465503,12.08692412512176
+7,2021-11-17,temperature,60 hour,9.856898696092326,11.275781154776759,12.020270347595215,12.764759540413671,14.183641999098104
+8,2021-11-17,temperature,72 hour,9.139567059890483,10.532996582953647,11.264130592346191,11.995264601738736,13.3886941248019
+9,2021-11-17,temperature,84 hour,9.506494665702363,10.928216976780764,11.674196243286133,12.420175509791502,13.841897820869903
+10,2021-11-17,DAX,1 day,0.1535301307522403,0.1535485697021684,0.1535558365706064,0.1535631034390444,0.1535815423889726
+11,2021-11-17,DAX,2 day,-3.356767030626364,-0.8777873469661178,0.0991890693569894,1.0761654856800964,3.5551451693403417
+12,2021-11-17,DAX,5 day,-3.160815940368552,-0.7858483262194277,0.1501364919896981,1.086121310198824,3.4610889243479472
+13,2021-11-17,DAX,6 day,-3.443376388676436,-0.9116751219389124,0.0860790940721967,1.083833310083306,3.615534576820828
+14,2021-11-17,DAX,7 day,-3.374927834285913,-0.8412084734128076,0.1573410820637196,1.155890637540247,3.689609998413352

20211117/20211117_AryaStark.csv

+forecast_date,target,horizon,q0.025,q0.25,q0.5,q0.75,q0.975
+2021-11-17,DAX,1 day,-1.16661739958557,-0.30830006768965,0.0620037921440629,0.432307651977776,1.2906249838737
+2021-11-17,DAX,2 day,-1.13834686755365,-0.234486331278103,0.160582600552663,0.555651532383428,1.45951206865898
+2021-11-17,DAX,5 day,-1.22164753608161,-0.122472845954234,0.3719421152614,0.866357076477034,1.96553176660441
+2021-11-17,DAX,6 day,-1.22773030552707,-0.0770891892072276,0.444447807781889,0.965984804771005,2.11662592109084
+2021-11-17,DAX,7 day,-1.2489409129567,-0.0290924094134237,0.526133817222287,1.081360043858,2.30120854740127
+2021-11-17,temperature,36 hour,7.61925,8.4325,8.655,9.0525,9.70275
+2021-11-17,temperature,48 hour,8.25075,8.8775,9.12,9.57,10.321
+2021-11-17,temperature,60 hour,10.13575,11.3275,11.87,12.1625,12.7765
+2021-11-17,temperature,72 hour,9.157,9.9975,10.58,11.0825,11.628
+2021-11-17,temperature,84 hour,10.04475,10.875,11.275,11.6775,12.35575
+2021-11-17,wind,36 hour,13.1777259612595,17.8159828749857,20.2496816302958,22.6833804086916,27.3216378259021
+2021-11-17,wind,48 hour,16.7795707699384,21.4154010169564,23.8478262669409,26.280251516969,30.9160817649366
+2021-11-17,wind,60 hour,17.5332840096453,21.7309267039797,23.9334344607859,26.1359422175924,30.3335849119321
+2021-11-17,wind,72 hour,14.6638177054004,19.1498997394076,21.5037519442757,23.8576041499472,28.3436862014736
+2021-11-17,wind,84 hour,12.6290204459839,17.745103359192,20.4295213465189,23.1139396968786,28.2300305276144

20211117/20211117_Bronn.csv

+forecast_date,target,horizon,q0.025,q0.25,q0.5,q0.75,q0.975
+2021-11-17,DAX,1 day,-2.861320039750037,-0.6304697221367839,0.0813486316353362,0.7446729478826519,2.703053341645796
+2021-11-17,DAX,2 day,-4.254657256777428,-0.9066643186865564,0.1548295761242712,1.1144498347221088,3.826919455107761
+2021-11-17,DAX,5 day,-5.165276374908983,-1.0640297140868782,0.2359862259535106,1.41871946639629,4.560959957057591
+2021-11-17,DAX,6 day,-5.802026602762222,-1.214957213565704,0.2958417347534769,1.6522158748272453,5.253724200572163
+2021-11-17,DAX,7 day,-6.497889946262569,-1.3312976936320275,0.3754480060514709,1.921716118120864,5.671755644993223
+2021-11-17,temperature,36 hour,7.194457777581128,8.58424426119437,9.313466763764852,10.042689266335335,11.432475749948576
+2021-11-17,temperature,48 hour,7.68016406677736,9.02638425728935,9.73274747776319,10.439110698237032,11.78533088874902
+2021-11-17,temperature,60 hour,9.718724360615088,11.382253556832037,12.25510916297561,13.127964769119188,14.791493965336134
+2021-11-17,temperature,72 hour,8.680521717487471,10.209248347477336,11.011372898270976,11.81349744906462,13.342224079054484
+2021-11-17,temperature,84 hour,9.131452693027637,10.906048029695272,11.837180162373867,12.768312295052462,14.542907631720098
+2021-11-17,wind,36 hour,13.788221652681218,18.15251887188239,20.442470460739454,22.73242205147823,27.096719311718573
+2021-11-17,wind,48 hour,16.781867159850336,21.054869427068233,23.296918435002574,25.538967442939473,29.81196971021325
+2021-11-17,wind,60 hour,18.10771299225686,22.12613706454637,24.234608612467987,26.34308016038961,30.361504232679316
+2021-11-17,wind,72 hour,14.618531457754907,18.873744891137974,21.106460080217097,23.33917526948867,27.594388707068973
+2021-11-17,wind,84 hour,12.82830893800585,17.974733039985917,20.67507054621703,23.375408361893207,28.52183921268874

20211117/20211117_CaptainRaymondHolt.csv

+forecast_date,target,horizon,q0.025,q0.25,q0.5,q0.75,q0.975
+2021-11-17,DAX,1 day,-2.845826787183805,-0.4642617288416417,0.0814519562604587,0.6626013228227201,2.509768398192328
+2021-11-17,DAX,2 day,-4.023989272061037,-0.725062850207614,0.1860678260578119,0.9321245717317072,3.3395510578479106
+2021-11-17,DAX,5 day,-4.93107408545896,-0.78133430227596,0.1896904248300579,1.2418832200818295,4.307442973982334
+2021-11-17,DAX,6 day,-5.668921033411313,-0.903067956925696,0.2996610727464599,1.4236634026023154,5.168686991473428
+2021-11-17,DAX,7 day,-6.138537434360027,-0.91248871639924,0.4065593583582938,1.5084129937433133,6.123444949238381
+2021-11-17,temperature,36 hour,7.298357,8.620125,9.313658,10.007191,11.328959
+2021-11-17,temperature,48 hour,7.783211,9.062087,9.733115,10.404142,11.683018
+2021-11-17,temperature,60 hour,9.770499,11.400134,12.255206,13.110277,14.739912
+2021-11-17,temperature,72 hour,8.688765,10.212086,11.011374,11.810662,13.333982
+2021-11-17,temperature,84 hour,9.138143,10.908341,11.837166,12.765991,14.53619
+2021-11-17,wind,36 hour,14.19462,18.28919,20.43762,22.58604,26.68061
+2021-11-17,wind,48 hour,17.68788,21.36619,23.29621,25.22623,28.90455
+2021-11-17,wind,60 hour,18.49072,22.2612,24.23958,26.21796,29.98845
+2021-11-17,wind,72 hour,15.42127,19.0837,21.00538,22.92706,26.58949
+2021-11-17,wind,84 hour,13.32079,18.13748,20.6648,23.19213,28.00881

20211117/20211117_ChandlerBing.csv

+forecast_date,target,horizon,q0.025,q0.25,q0.5,q0.75,q0.975
+2021-11-17,DAX,1 day,-1.2131263835152348,-0.3725013162627894,0.0685755847526748,0.509652485768139,1.350277553020584
+2021-11-17,DAX,2 day,-1.6743926155623303,-0.4627242421481744,0.173039491320731,0.8088032247896365,2.020471598203792
+2021-11-17,DAX,5 day,-1.852630041007734,-0.4508747369397989,0.2846278189393735,1.020130374818546,2.421885678886481
+2021-11-17,DAX,6 day,-1.8250110039917469,-0.3947447825190118,0.35571748320455,1.106179748928112,2.5364459704008464
+2021-11-17,DAX,7 day,-1.876993265124128,-0.3386918061338058,0.4684566680090166,1.275605142151839,2.8139066011421607
+2021-11-17,temperature,36 hour,7.3133421159104515,8.552003246745622,9.201930109839054,9.851856972932486,11.090518103767655
+2021-11-17,temperature,48 hour,7.759509223720832,8.983397266420868,9.625572673857176,10.267748081293483,11.49163612399352
+2021-11-17,temperature,60 hour,9.732601054118543,11.217106424636844,11.996028031756122,12.7749496388754,14.2594550093937
+2021-11-17,temperature,72 hour,8.77611994828072,10.216270567856045,10.971919188178504,11.727567808500966,13.167718428076292
+2021-11-17,temperature,84 hour,9.360152780324391,10.83776374363016,11.613067847672134,12.38837195171411,13.865982915019876
+2021-11-17,wind,36 hour,14.723421577433392,18.4896213686632,20.46575055780368,22.441879746944156,26.20807953817396
+2021-11-17,wind,48 hour,16.2209653404787,19.42385327323117,21.104412108213,22.78497094319482,25.987858875947296
+2021-11-17,wind,60 hour,18.54500125343918,22.110232935970185,23.980913936565045,25.851594937159906,29.41682661969091
+2021-11-17,wind,72 hour,14.525362044384693,17.05628545962937,18.384263770283717,19.712242080938054,22.243165496182733
+2021-11-17,wind,84 hour,13.033435463004793,17.654513284259618,20.079197919720613,22.503882555181608,27.12496037643643

20211117/20211117_DexterJettster.csv

+"forecast_date","target","horizon","q0.025","q0.25","q0.5","q0.75","q0.975"
+2021-11-17,"DAX","1 day",-1.81771946224871,-0.297346014009392,0.132224049112306,0.487441245591924,1.55890568174936
+2021-11-17,"DAX","2 day",-1.9565053511336,-0.387234727332153,0.135134801139891,0.702845994161949,2.23012289348735
+2021-11-17,"DAX","5 day",-2.10031350630918,-0.434436164594754,0.24219784664119,0.956284365183624,2.7773211552435
+2021-11-17,"DAX","6 day",-2.3971928750439,-0.372583356365874,0.282106139983362,1.0731308817034,2.95330481000041
+2021-11-17,"DAX","7 day",-2.59736833581584,-0.330486107058103,0.43506617994824,1.18281692232745,3.12928846475733
+2021-11-17,"temperature","36 hour",7.29618278629374,8.537966786679,9.18953222287367,9.84109765906835,11.0828816594536
+2021-11-17,"temperature","48 hour",7.76447913233341,8.96424431964758,9.59376243822618,10.2232805568048,11.423045744119
+2021-11-17,"temperature","60 hour",9.7486885449444,11.1991839763608,11.9602605308791,12.7213370853975,14.1718325168138
+2021-11-17,"temperature","72 hour",8.69731880998135,10.1680292797102,10.9397126871528,11.7113960945953,13.1821065643242
+2021-11-17,"temperature","84 hour",9.2969292222799,10.7890360336201,11.5719461251323,12.3548562166444,13.8469630279846
+2021-11-17,"wind","36 hour",13.7882216526812,18.1525188718824,20.4424704607395,22.7324220514782,27.0967193117186
+2021-11-17,"wind","48 hour",16.7818671598503,21.0548694270682,23.2969184350026,25.5389674429395,29.8119697102133
+2021-11-17,"wind","60 hour",18.1077129922569,22.1261370645464,24.234608612468,26.3430801603896,30.3615042326793
+2021-11-17,"wind","72 hour",14.6185314577549,18.873744891138,21.1064600802171,23.3391752694887,27.594388707069
+2021-11-17,"wind","84 hour",12.8283089380059,17.9747330399859,20.675070546217,23.3754083618932,28.5218392126887

20211117/20211117_GeneralGrievous.csv

+forecast_date,target,horizon,q0.025,q0.25,q0.5,q0.75,q0.975
+2021-11-17,DAX,1 day,-0.42590731373101465,0.11029250795573242,0.3916371464729309,0.6729817849901294,1.2091816066768764
+2021-11-17,DAX,2 day,0.01169536147322725,0.5477336677043709,0.828993558883667,1.110253450062963,1.6462917562941066
+2021-11-17,DAX,5 day,1.0341201601232808,1.5688622435270188,1.8494420051574707,2.1300217667879227,2.6647638501916604
+2021-11-17,DAX,6 day,2.1477380415847094,2.68213705788576,2.9625368118286133,3.2429365657714664,3.777335582072517
+2021-11-17,DAX,7 day,3.626809054809102,4.162459432789904,4.443515777587891,4.724572122385878,5.260222500366679
+2021-11-17,temperature,36 hour,0.86,5.17,7.49,9.87,13.81
+2021-11-17,temperature,48 hour,-1.62,2.62,5.08,7.5,11.98
+2021-11-17,temperature,60 hour,0.75,4.92,7.24,9.57,13.67
+2021-11-17,temperature,72 hour,-1.8,2.54,4.9,7.3,11.39
+2021-11-17,temperature,84 hour,0.69,4.69,7.0,9.28,13.49
+2021-11-17,wind,36 hour,3.34,9.2,13.72,17.74,26.69
+2021-11-17,wind,48 hour,2.33,7.04,10.99,14.4,22.48
+2021-11-17,wind,60 hour,3.32,9.22,13.79,17.85,26.91
+2021-11-17,wind,72 hour,2.39,7.12,11.03,14.42,22.36
+2021-11-17,wind,84 hour,3.38,9.33,13.91,17.98,27.05

20211117/20211117_GinaLinetti.csv

+forecast_date,target,horizon,q0.025,q0.25,q0.5,q0.75,q0.975
+2021-11-10,DAX,1 day,-1.814,-0.319,0.107,0.585,1.644
+2021-11-10,DAX,2 day, -1.895,-0.392,0.135,0.703,2.350
+2021-11-10,DAX,5 day,-2.130,-0.480,0.228,0.979,3.269
+2021-11-10,DAX,6 day,-2.012,-0.477,0.240,1.097,3.330
+2021-11-10,DAX,7 day,-2.563,-0.315,0.404,1.243,3.206
+2021-11-10,temperature,36 hour,-0.02505758,3.889791 ,5.574968 ,7.260145 , 11.17499 
+2021-11-10,temperature,48 hour,-0.34429335,3.652610 ,5.373108 ,7.093605 ,11.09051
+2021-11-10,temperature,60 hour,-0.49696121,3.613992 ,5.383584  ,7.153175  ,11.26413 
+2021-11-10,temperature,72 hour,-0.61484476,3.579935  ,5.385610  ,7.191285  ,11.38606 
+2021-11-10,temperature,84 hour,-0.72564287,3.546917 ,5.386073 ,7.225229 ,11.49779
+2021-11-10,wind,36 hour,14.27400 ,15.74250 ,17.48000 ,18.75000 ,20.25925 
+2021-11-10,wind,48 hour,16.11750 ,18.38750 ,19.15000 ,20.25750 ,21.05025 
+2021-11-10,wind,60 hour,18.83750 ,19.58500 ,21.08500 ,21.86250 ,22.80025 
+2021-11-10,wind,72 hour,15.47475 ,16.54750 ,17.60500 ,18.75500 ,19.95700 
+2021-11-10,wind,84 hour,12.82375 ,16.45500 ,17.52500 ,19.11750 ,21.80400 

20211117/20211117_HanSolo.csv

+forecast_date,target,horizon,q0.025,q0.25,q0.5,q0.75,q0.975
+2021-11-17,DAX,1 day,-1.2327443124575015,-0.36733346733020905,0.06843128950759375,0.6202616473839527,2.5980992079441076
+2021-11-17,DAX,2 day,-2.4524956768788986,-0.8025188405411039,0.1642822945208946,0.8822794036914502,2.0143396859702207
+2021-11-17,DAX,5 day,-5.713077027676892,-0.6913113735917727,0.26032951012961403,1.1344892767581516,2.538511219912286
+2021-11-17,DAX,6 day,-5.899469892687992,-0.7696056088283345,0.20873496362104704,1.4764970126556465,2.6120948696491895
+2021-11-17,DAX,7 day,-5.842459386486304,-0.5880182633661669,0.33887343347364285,1.5307473410619985,2.3726137944201233
+2021-11-17,temperature,36 hour,6.916572093963623,8.30020523071289,9.252677917480469,9.738008499145508,11.521322250366211
+2021-11-17,temperature,48 hour,7.463832378387451,9.023012161254883,9.633257865905762,10.287542343139648,11.583525657653809
+2021-11-17,temperature,60 hour,9.062678337097168,11.024168968200684,11.886627197265625,13.045918464660645,15.409111976623535
+2021-11-17,temperature,72 hour,8.407081604003906,10.224400520324707,10.825705528259277,12.006133079528809,13.478199005126953
+2021-11-17,temperature,84 hour,8.45560359954834,10.755701065063477,11.453940391540527,12.665792465209961,15.562378883361816
+2021-11-17,wind,36 hour,11.925742149353027,17.680944442749023,20.867563247680664,22.865123748779297,30.27783203125
+2021-11-17,wind,48 hour,12.670548439025879,17.42783546447754,22.01328468322754,24.892141342163086,34.10447692871094
+2021-11-17,wind,60 hour,14.719852447509766,20.14825439453125,23.892274856567383,27.01626205444336,34.92421340942383
+2021-11-17,wind,72 hour,12.52992057800293,16.714107513427734,19.835861206054688,22.59576988220215,30.654186248779297
+2021-11-17,wind,84 hour,11.949199676513672,17.16493797302246,19.329225540161133,23.221012115478516,29.90066146850586

20211117/20211117_HotPie.csv

+"forecast_date","target","horizon","q0.025","q0.25","q0.5","q0.75","q0.975"
+2021-11-17,"DAX","1 day",-1.59213730871685,-0.385254378717768,0.0815418285858073,0.476813922267962,1.64257471120191
+2021-11-17,"DAX","2 day",-1.85616688296853,-0.548750931859245,0.268439420259074,0.822590671924384,1.91435879998639
+2021-11-17,"DAX","5 day",-2.58842629348124,-0.658825020617326,0.339022727005067,1.13294875576465,2.78726391316978
+2021-11-17,"DAX","6 day",-2.91664581650018,-0.714147851985803,0.476328740933877,1.44375902932742,3.46642490293137
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20211117/20211117_JabbaTheHutt.csv

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20211117/20211117_Joey.csv

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20211117/20211117_Joffrey_Baratheon.csv

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20211117/20211117_KyloRen.csv

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20211117/20211117_ObiWanKenobi.csv

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20211117/20211117_PhoebeBuffay.csv

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20211117/20211117_SamwellTarly.csv

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20211117/20211117_Shaggydog.csv

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20211117/20211117_UglyNakedGuy.csv

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+2021-11-17,"temperature","36 hour",6.78928281878736,8.2256407301957,9.03856258092116,9.83366925194591,11.2197336221349
+2021-11-17,"temperature","48 hour",8.14318256756984,9.21219176596279,10.0454091903801,10.7417899901488,12.251339600021
+2021-11-17,"temperature","60 hour",9.04981398320581,10.7193080456221,11.647886917913,12.5908168759892,14.2792791296412
+2021-11-17,"temperature","72 hour",9.14938403242041,10.4978654896687,11.3243659140248,12.0364066445796,13.6754687143504
+2021-11-17,"temperature","84 hour",8.69194326367699,10.3331746008825,11.2840145289327,12.3001260284566,14.2397718227268
+2021-11-17,"wind","36 hour",12.9171967707992,18.0031122089942,20.4342776044213,22.8942187170595,27.8302314712835
+2021-11-17,"wind","48 hour",14.7451815675621,18.6638182456134,21.8036311535918,25.0649245467237,30.546737716209
+2021-11-17,"wind","60 hour",16.5943074023342,21.8872774455903,24.1769422226665,26.4204796260522,31.2979792317479
+2021-11-17,"wind","72 hour",12.9571470890846,16.7824630924681,19.5826639494116,22.8986527032143,26.9864871817314
+2021-11-17,"wind","84 hour",11.2576356726804,17.690065780413,20.6035525788193,23.391073552147,28.9927277258272

20211117/20211117_Yoda.csv

+forecast_date,target,horizon,q0.025,q0.25,q0.5,q0.75,q0.975
+2021-11-17,DAX,1 day,-0.5120590291637064,0.08616944285481644,0.2129650220755826,0.23598729894523285,0.6926509093222568
+2021-11-17,DAX,2 day,-1.3935733493013247,-0.10133209130033337,0.2883475836406835,0.5244695610501925,1.6254039433625391
+2021-11-17,DAX,5 day,-2.0471027217758393,-0.30669731518745286,0.30902052318102585,0.7799802277102429,2.1267685932670184
+2021-11-17,DAX,6 day,-2.512893955245529,-0.4026326238675509,0.29972168989030346,0.9945025167604932,2.6398703544954367
+2021-11-17,DAX,7 day,-2.7854919794783934,-0.46638884293228583,0.37071419440806547,1.1740433767936294,3.0589909237976243
+2021-11-17,temperature,36 hour,7.19445777758113,8.58424426119437,9.31346676376485,10.0426892663353,11.4324757499486
+2021-11-17,temperature,48 hour,7.68016406677736,9.02638425728935,9.73274747776319,10.439110698237,11.785330888749
+2021-11-17,temperature,60 hour,9.71872436061509,11.382253556832,12.2551091629756,13.1279647691192,14.7914939653361
+2021-11-17,temperature,72 hour,8.68052171748747,10.2092483474773,11.011372898271,11.8134974490646,13.3422240790545
+2021-11-17,temperature,84 hour,9.13145269302764,10.9060480296953,11.8371801623739,12.7683122950525,14.5429076317201
+2021-11-17,wind,36 hour,13.7882216526812,18.1525188718824,20.4424704607395,22.7324220514782,27.0967193117186
+2021-11-17,wind,48 hour,16.7818671598503,21.0548694270682,23.2969184350026,25.5389674429395,29.8119697102133
+2021-11-17,wind,60 hour,18.1077129922569,22.1261370645464,24.234608612468,26.3430801603896,30.3615042326793
+2021-11-17,wind,72 hour,14.6185314577549,18.873744891138,21.1064600802171,23.3391752694887,27.594388707069
+2021-11-17,wind,84 hour,12.8283089380059,17.9747330399859,20.675070546217,23.3754083618932,28.5218392126887